Mortgage holders are questioning why the Euribor has not experienced a more pronounced decrease despite expectations. BBVA experts believe there may still be room for further reductions throughout the month, which would benefit those reviewing their mortgages with the February average. Banking institutions are working with a Euribor forecast around 2% until 2027, but surprises cannot be ruled out.
According to January data, for an average loan of 150,000 euros over 25 years with a margin of 1%, the monthly payment could decrease by approximately 10% compared to the previous year if the February Euribor remains below 2.525%, which was the closing figure for January. For those conducting an annual review, the monthly payment would be reduced to 755.72 euros, representing an annual savings of around 1,048 euros.
Analysts project that the Euribor will continue to decline in the coming months, albeit with some moderation. Currently, the February average stands at 2.394%, very close to the 2.5% with which the previous year closed. This behavior responds, among other factors, to the recent decision of the European Central Bank to reduce interest rates by a quarter of a point.
Despite a recent spike taking it to 2.444%, the Euribor continues to show volatility, with estimates suggesting a possible drop to 2% by mid-year and a range of 2%-2.25% towards the end of 2025. The evolution will depend on ECB policies and the global economic context. Experts suggest considering fixed or mixed rate options for those thinking of changing their mortgage, taking into account associated costs such as appraisals and transfer fees.
The impact of the Euribor on variable-rate mortgages remains relevant, and declines in payments are expected in the coming months, which could result in considerable savings for borrowers.
