Spain's Government and Junts: A Relationship Between Rupture and Reconciliation

The publication of fiscal balances is one of the demands made by Junts that the government in Moncloa has not yet fulfilled. During recent interviews with Catalan media, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez acknowledged the unfulfilled commitments, which contrasts with the government's official position that it is «complying.» Politically, the government has already recognized Puigdemont as a valid interlocutor, holding meetings in Brussels and expressing willingness for a future meeting between the two. The Ministry of Finance had previously been opposed to adopting the Catalan formula, as it hides the underlying argument for special financing and supports the independentist narrative that «Spain robs us.» The publication of the fiscal balances was a condition set by Puigdemont's party to support Pedro Sánchez's investiture. While the government has partially published the data, it has not met the expectations of the post-convergentists. Direct negotiations are underway to agree on the methodology for calculating the fiscal balances. The government hopes that by spring, Carles Puigdemont will be able to set foot on Spanish soil, betting on his return to unblock relations with Junts. Even the series of interviews Sánchez granted to Catalan media two weeks ago was coordinated with Junts. In private, they compare this relationship to a post-breakup scenario where one must «win back» the other with gestures. This effort is being built with a range of gestures, such as proposing Catalonia become an associate member of UNESCO and the World Tourism Organization, and, most importantly, negotiating the calculation of fiscal balances. Minister María Jesús Montero has offered the autonomous communities a database so they can prepare their own fiscal balances. This statement perfectly summarizes the relationship between the government and Junts. They believe that once he returns, his party will have the necessary support to pass the budget. Moncloa is now playing the game, even if it means stepping on its own feet. The government has accepted the «rupture» framework strategically imposed by Junts while publicly stating that nothing has changed. However, privately, as ABC has learned, the relationship remains alive with an open channel of communication. Until Puigdemont's return, the executive is focused on deploying all its «seduction» efforts. A government member made this statement in a context of constant bluffs from Carles Puigdemont's party that never materialized. But something has changed. What Junts demands is not the raw data, but for the government to accept the independentist's «kitchen» to legitimize the narrative of territorial grievance. Government sources privately confirm they are in talks with Puigdemont's party on this matter. However, the most crucial piece—the judicial approval—is still pending. In a very compromised position in Catalonia, with the Aliança Catalana de Sílvia Orriols gaining ground in the CEO (the Catalan CIS) and eating into their municipal support, the executive has opted to change course, moving from a dismissive attitude towards its partners' empty threats to participating in the «performance.» Subsequently, in an informal conversation with journalists, he expressed his willingness to «play all his cards» to achieve a series of concessions to Catalan sovereignists that could open a «window of opportunity» to complete the legislature. Puigdemont's hot poker plays a fundamental role in this strategy, namely the effective application of the amnesty, which Moncloa calls «the milestone of 2026.» Last Monday, Sánchez, in a year-end press conference, acknowledged that relations were «broken» but anticipated «the absolute will to achieve and fulfill the agreements.» «They say we don't talk, so we won't talk,» a government member said sarcastically, showing the executive's willingness not to disturb its allies. Everything is measured to the millimeter. «It's all theater,» they say in Moncloa. Government sources believe that until Puigdemont's return to Spain is confirmed, «they are not going to give any signal,» and it will be Puigdemont who «pulses and makes decisions» once he is on Spanish soil.