The Fed is expected to keep monetary policy on hold throughout the year, maintaining interest rates at 4.5%. This stance differs from the situation in Europe, where prices continue to decline due to weak demand and rising economic activity lethargy, especially in the eurozone, which is projected to grow by 0.6% this year and 1% in 2026.
Protectionist measures, such as the additional tariffs on certain imported products announced by the Trump Administration, could affect the confidence of consumers and businesses, thus slowing down economic growth in Spain. Despite a higher inflation forecast for the coming years, the expectation of a decrease in the cost of money is reduced.
The possibility of new tariff escalations by the United States towards Europe and the tax reductions proposed by the White House could lead to a spike in inflation in Spain, affecting production costs and exports to the U.S.
On the other hand, the importance of recalibrating the relationship between transatlantic allies for the benefit of companies and investors on both sides of the Atlantic is highlighted. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could stimulate consumption in the medium term if inflation can be kept under control.
Regarding the European economy, Spain finds itself in a relatively positive position despite the economic crisis in the region. The aforementioned economic weakness has led institutions like the IMF to speak of a possible cycle change, highlighting the difference between productive activity in eurozone countries and the recovery that the United States might experience.
Internally, the Spanish economy has shown strong resilience, surpassing the growth rate of its European neighbors. Uncertainties about the economic future could be clarified by following the roadmap suggested by Mario Draghi to improve the competitiveness of the Spanish internal market. Decisions from the White House have also sparked debate over transatlantic relations and their impact on the global economy.
As for forecasts for the Spanish economy in 2025, economist Gonzalo Bernardos is optimistic. At the European level, doubts are observed regarding the future economic recovery due to the loss of competitiveness. Despite uncertainties, public investments and public spending are expected to continue driving growth in the short term.
