Throughout 2025, fuel prices have shown very modest declines, around 4% for gasoline and 2% for diesel. This year, which is coming to an end, has been marked by geostrategic tensions between Venezuela and the USA, and between Israel and the Middle East. According to the latest available data from the EU's bulletin, based on final prices at European gas stations, in the week of December 15, the price of gasoline was 1.47 euros per liter, which is a 4.3% decrease compared to the start of the year. In the case of diesel, the decline is more modest, as the price at the end of the year is 1.421 euros per liter, 2.27% cheaper than at the beginning. Thus, filling a 55-liter tank with gasoline at the latest prices amounts to 80.85 euros, and with diesel, 78.16 euros; whereas at the beginning of the year it cost 84.48 and 79.97 euros, respectively. The highs of June 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are now a distant memory; even with the 20-cent-per-liter discount promoted by the government, gasoline was sold at 1.941 euros (32% more expensive than now). The drop in fuel prices occurs at a time when the European benchmark Brent crude has reduced its price to 61 dollars, after a year marked by tensions in the Middle East, between the USA and Venezuela, and the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine. This scenario has pushed the price of crude above 72 dollars at times in 2025, which is still far from the over 100 dollars it was trading at in the summer of 2022 or the over 90 dollars of September 2023. Uncertainty remains after the USA recently announced a total blockade of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has decided to maintain its oil supply, which accounts for nearly half of global production, at least until April 1, 2026, not counting potential monthly increases agreed upon by eight of its members. 'Energy prices are currently low, both for the oil barrel and for natural gas. In the case of oil, this is justified by a market that is currently experiencing an oversupply,' explains François Rime, senior strategist at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management. An oversupply that, according to the latest forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA), should persist in 2026, according to this same analyst. However, other experts observe that this price trend could change in 2026, as noted by Matthew Michael, commodities and emerging debt analyst at Schroders, who believes that after dragging a bearish tone for a year and a half, during the upcoming year, oil and gas prices may rise. Michael considers that the situation could actually lead to a 'more balanced' oil market where prices stabilize in a range of between 60 and 70 dollars per barrel.
